“Fun” with numbers – my #BostonMarathon chances! #runreal

With the announcement today that 7500 people signed up for the 5000 spots left, I decided to see what number I am sweating by the end of this week. So, fun with math. Engineers: feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. Btw this is based on the assumption that the times submitted are equally distributed across the 5 minute range.

My time is a 3:11:03 (a BQ-3:57 for the 3:15 cutoff). Using the BQ-3:57, that means I’m in the 79th percentile for the 5 and under group.

There are 5,000 spots remaining. So, solving for x in this equation should yield the number of equally distributed registrations that cannot be exceeded for my 79th percentile time not to make it:

x – 5000 = .79x

If you want to use this equation for your own time, figure out your percentile and put it in the spot of the .79 in my equation. I’m not going to show my work. Plus, I cheated and used an equation solver. But I did make up the equation myself. Could you smell that burning smell?

Solving for x yields 23,809. So, if more than 23,809 people register this week, I won’t make it, since 79% of 23,809 = 18,809, or 5,000 less than 23, 809.

My head hurts.

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